Mar 012014
 

Original story by Abby Dinham, SBS (Transcript from World News Radio)

The soon to be abolished Climate Change Authority says Australia’s target of a 5 per cent reduction of carbon emissions by 2020 is not credible.SBS - World News Radio

And the goal must be raised to 15 per cent for the country to be considered serious about tackling global warming.

In what may be its final progress report, the Authority warns the government’s target will not contribute to the international goal of limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

And it says in the long run, global warming will cost Australia more than any climate change policy.

Abby Dinham has the details.

The Climate Change Authority was established in 2012 to provide expert opinion to the Australian government.

Last year the newly-elected Coalition government delivered on its promise to introduce a Bill to abolish the Authority.

With that Bill still before the Senate, the Authority has delivered a damning assessment of the government’s climate change goals.

Authority chair Bernie Fraser – a former Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia – says Australia’s current five per cent target of emissions reduction will not contribute to keeping global warming below 2 degrees before the year 2050.

“To stick with the 2020 target of a minimum of 5% would within the framework of the present global budget and Australia’s share of the global budget would impose a virtually impossible task of making up lost ground and getting to the end result of the time available.”

Australia has a formal international agreement with the United Nations to reduce emissions by at least 5 per cent by 2020, compared with 2000 levels.

But the federal government also indicated that it might do more under certain circumstances.

Climate Change Authority member Professor John Quiggan says the world’s two largest emitters – China and the United States – are greatly stepping up their efforts on climate change.

He says the longer Australia leaves it to take action on climate change the more expensive it will be.

“If we decide to meet our commitment, we’ll be paying more substantially more in the decade ahead than we would now. If we decide not to and the rest of the world decides to do that same there will be catastrophic consequences for Australia for future generations that are set out in the report and there is also the gamble that we can be the international slacker that we can get away for doing nothing while other countries take up the burden.”

The Climate Change Authority report says that Australia will greatly suffer under a warmer climate, with predictions of increased weather extremes, such as heatwaves, droughts, floods and bushfires.

The report provides several funding methods to reach a 15 percent target of emissions reduction, including the establishment of a fund to purchase international carbon offsets to help meet the recommended 2020 goals.

Carbon offsets – sanctioned by the Kyoto Protocol – are earned by governments and private companies reducing emissions, which can then be traded on a marketplace to countries that can’t or don’t want to reduce fossil-fuel consumption.

The University of Melbourne’s David Karoly says this may be cheaper than inaction.

“We’ve already seen over the last 10 years and the last 12 months an increase in wildfires an increase in coastal erosion, and while scientists are yet to link Queensland and NSW drought to climate change because it’s too recent to do that. There’s obviously been major investment in addressing that. There are many many economic costs associated in addressing unmitigated climate change, in fact all economic assessments I have seen at least a three fold or more greater cost of unmitigated climate change than addressing climate change.”

But the Climate Authority report states that some progress has been made in Australia on climate change.

It says Australia’s emissions were almost the same in 2012 as in 1990 – this despite the economy doubling in size.

Effectively, this means that the rate of emissions over this 22 year period halved.

It attributes the reduction to broader economic forces and some government policy.

But the Climate Authority’s Professor Clive Hamilton says further efforts are needed to achieve absolute reductions in emissions.

Professor Hamilton says a 19 per cent reduction can be achieved with little more cost to the Australian economy.

He says that figure could come from the addition of the proposed 15 per cent reduction with a carryover of the four per cent emission credits that Australia accrued under the Kyoto Protocol.

“For the five per cent target gross national income per person is expected to be $66,450 whereas under the 19 per cent gross national income per person would be $66,350. So a shortfall of a $100.”

The report states that in 2012, Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions were 2-point-5 per cent above 2000 levels.

It says without effective policies over the next six years, emissions are predicted to grow to 17 per cent.

The report recommends the introduction of targeted and sustained emissions reduction policies, that include market-based reforms, to alter the course of the Australian economy in a greener direction.

It says the government should set a trajectory range for emissions reductions of between 40 and 60 per cent below 2000 levels by 2030.

But Bernie Fraser admits that with the Authority facing the axe, he’s not convinced that the government will act on any of the recommendations.

“We’re hopeful, we’re always hopeful. Otherwise we wouldn’t be here I think. We just have to see how it all pans out.”

Australia is obliged to review its five percent emission reduction pledge and deliver a response on a possible target increase to the UN by the end of April.

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.